Lab estimates
Frontier labs and hyperscalers do not publish a single clean "AI P&L." What we can do is keep a sourced ledger of revenue run rates and CapEx / compute-spend figures as they show up in earnings, filings, and reputable press — with confidence labels and notes on what each number actually covers.
Filter by lab, year, or confidence. Sort by as-of date, revenue, or capex. Hyperscaler rows are usually company-wide CapEx (AI is the driver, not the only line). Lab ARR figures are often annualized run rates, not audited GAAP.
Disclaimer: These are estimates from public reports, not official filings and not investment advice. Accounting bases differ (gross vs net, CapEx vs leases). Prefer the source links over the summary cell.
Confidence
Showing 16 of 16 estimates
Cohere
Sep 1, 2026
2026 · Low confidence
- Est. revenue
- —
- Est. capex
- —
Placeholder row for a major independent lab. No durable public revenue/capex figure sourced for this seed — leave nulls rather than invent.
Sources: The AIgentic
Google DeepMind
Sep 1, 2026
2026 · Low confidence
- Est. revenue
- —
- Est. capex
- —
DeepMind is not separately disclosed in Alphabet segment CapEx. Use Google / Alphabet rows for company-wide infra spend.
Sources: The AIgentic
OpenAI
Aug 14, 2026
2026 · Medium confidence
- Est. revenue
- $40B
- Est. capex
- —
Annualized revenue run rate ~$40B (latest-month / July annualization per Bloomberg/CNBC), not GAAP full-year revenue. Q2 2026 recognized revenue was reported ~$6.7B (~$27B if annualized) — different basis. Capex not disclosed as a single company figure.
Sources: CNBCBloombergFutureSearchCNBC (IPO)
Anthropic
Jul 31, 2026
2026 · Medium confidence
- Est. revenue
- $65B
- Est. capex
- —
Annualized revenue run rate topped ~$65B by end-July 2026 (investor update; Bloomberg first, CNBC confirmed). Accounting may be gross of cloud-partner pass-through (not apples-to-apples vs OpenAI net). Capex not a single disclosed figure.
Sources: CNBCBloombergTechCrunchSeeking Alpha
Amazon
Jul 30, 2026
2026 · High confidence
- Est. revenue
- —
- Est. capex
- $220B
2026 CapEx guidance raised to ~$220B on Q2 earnings (from ~$200B earlier; memory costs cited). Company-wide cash CapEx; AWS/AI is primary growth driver.
Sources: CNBCPlatformonomicsUncoverAlpha
Microsoft
Jul 29, 2026
2026 · High confidence
- Est. revenue
- —
- Est. capex
- $175B
Calendar-2026 CapEx expectation restated to ~$175B on July earnings (useful-life update shifts more future data-center leases from finance → operating; not a cut vs earlier ~$190B headlines). Company-wide; AI/cloud is the driver. Less comparable to Meta, which still includes finance-lease principal in CapEx.
Meta AI
Jul 29, 2026
2026 · High confidence
- Est. revenue
- —
- Est. capex
- $137.5B
2026 CapEx guidance ~$130–145B (midpoint $137.5B). Includes finance-lease principal per Meta definitions — not fully comparable to Microsoft after its finance→operating lease reclass.
Sources: PlatformonomicsUncoverAlphaCNBC
Google / Alphabet
Jul 22, 2026
2026 · High confidence
- Est. revenue
- —
- Est. capex
- $200B
Q2 2026 earnings: full-year CapEx guidance raised to $195–205B (midpoint $200B used here). Company-wide.
xAI
Jun 30, 2026
2026 · High confidence
- Est. revenue
- —
- Est. capex
- $23.5B
H1 2026 CapEx: $7.7B Q1 + $15.8B Q2 = $23.5B (~82.7% of SpaceX H1 capex). Full-year revenue not used here; quarterly AI-segment revenue reported separately in SpaceX materials.
Sources: Yahoo Finance
Apple
May 1, 2026
2026 · Medium confidence
- Est. revenue
- —
- Est. capex
- $14B
Secondary summaries of Apple FY2026 CapEx around ~$14B — an order of magnitude below hyperscalers. Not Apple Intelligence P&L; company-wide CapEx.
Sources: TrefisBeta Finch
Mistral
Jan 1, 2026
2026 · Medium confidence
- Est. revenue
- $1.2B
- Est. capex
- $1.2B
CEO Arthur Mensch targets (Davos/Bloomberg TV): expects to cross ~€1B / ~$1.2B revenue in 2026 and spend about the same on chips/infra. CEO targets / outlook, not audited results. Earlier FT coverage had ARR above $400M in 2025.
Sources: Economic Times
xAI
Dec 31, 2025
2025 · High confidence
- Est. revenue
- $3.2B
- Est. capex
- $12.7B
Figures from SpaceX IPO-related disclosures covering xAI: ~$3.2B revenue and $12.7B CapEx in 2025; ~$6.4B operating loss also reported in secondary coverage.
Sources: PitchBook
Microsoft
Dec 31, 2025
2025 · Medium confidence
- Est. revenue
- —
- Est. capex
- $118B
Company-wide CY2025 CapEx ~$118B (Platformonomics hyperscaler retrospective from earnings). Dominated by AI/cloud infrastructure; not a pure 'OpenAI spend' line. Revenue left null (whole-company).
Sources: PlatformonomicsCNBC
Google / Alphabet
Dec 31, 2025
2025 · Medium confidence
- Est. revenue
- —
- Est. capex
- $91.5B
Alphabet CY2025 CapEx ~$91.5B. Includes Google Cloud + DeepMind-related infra; not a DeepMind P&L.
Sources: PlatformonomicsCNBC
Amazon
Dec 31, 2025
2025 · Medium confidence
- Est. revenue
- —
- Est. capex
- $134.7B
Amazon CY2025 CapEx ~$134.7B; AWS CapEx breakout cited ~$96.5B in same retrospective. Includes retail logistics, not only AI.
Sources: PlatformonomicsCNBC
Meta AI
Dec 31, 2025
2025 · Medium confidence
- Est. revenue
- —
- Est. capex
- $72.2B
Meta CY2025 CapEx ~$72.2B. Company-wide; AI infra is the explicit growth driver in guidance commentary.
Sources: PlatformonomicsCNBC
| Confidence | Sources | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 1, 2026 | Cohere Placeholder row for a major independent lab. No durable public revenue/capex figure sourced for this seed — leave nulls rather than invent. | 2026 | — | — | Low | Sources: The AIgentic |
| Sep 1, 2026 | Google DeepMind DeepMind is not separately disclosed in Alphabet segment CapEx. Use Google / Alphabet rows for company-wide infra spend. | 2026 | — | — | Low | Sources: The AIgentic |
| Aug 14, 2026 | OpenAI Annualized revenue run rate ~$40B (latest-month / July annualization per Bloomberg/CNBC), not GAAP full-year revenue. Q2 2026 recognized revenue was reported ~$6.7B (~$27B if annualized) — different basis. Capex not disclosed as a single company figure. | 2026 | $40B | — | Medium | Sources: CNBCBloombergFutureSearchCNBC (IPO) |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Anthropic Annualized revenue run rate topped ~$65B by end-July 2026 (investor update; Bloomberg first, CNBC confirmed). Accounting may be gross of cloud-partner pass-through (not apples-to-apples vs OpenAI net). Capex not a single disclosed figure. | 2026 | $65B | — | Medium | Sources: CNBCBloombergTechCrunchSeeking Alpha |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Amazon 2026 CapEx guidance raised to ~$220B on Q2 earnings (from ~$200B earlier; memory costs cited). Company-wide cash CapEx; AWS/AI is primary growth driver. | 2026 | — | $220B | High | Sources: CNBCPlatformonomicsUncoverAlpha |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Microsoft Calendar-2026 CapEx expectation restated to ~$175B on July earnings (useful-life update shifts more future data-center leases from finance → operating; not a cut vs earlier ~$190B headlines). Company-wide; AI/cloud is the driver. Less comparable to Meta, which still includes finance-lease principal in CapEx. | 2026 | — | $175B | High | |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Meta AI 2026 CapEx guidance ~$130–145B (midpoint $137.5B). Includes finance-lease principal per Meta definitions — not fully comparable to Microsoft after its finance→operating lease reclass. | 2026 | — | $137.5B | High | Sources: PlatformonomicsUncoverAlphaCNBC |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Google / Alphabet Q2 2026 earnings: full-year CapEx guidance raised to $195–205B (midpoint $200B used here). Company-wide. | 2026 | — | $200B | High | |
| Jun 30, 2026 | xAI H1 2026 CapEx: $7.7B Q1 + $15.8B Q2 = $23.5B (~82.7% of SpaceX H1 capex). Full-year revenue not used here; quarterly AI-segment revenue reported separately in SpaceX materials. | 2026 | — | $23.5B | High | Sources: Yahoo Finance |
| May 1, 2026 | Apple Secondary summaries of Apple FY2026 CapEx around ~$14B — an order of magnitude below hyperscalers. Not Apple Intelligence P&L; company-wide CapEx. | 2026 | — | $14B | Medium | Sources: TrefisBeta Finch |
| Jan 1, 2026 | Mistral CEO Arthur Mensch targets (Davos/Bloomberg TV): expects to cross ~€1B / ~$1.2B revenue in 2026 and spend about the same on chips/infra. CEO targets / outlook, not audited results. Earlier FT coverage had ARR above $400M in 2025. | 2026 | $1.2B | $1.2B | Medium | Sources: Economic Times |
| Dec 31, 2025 | xAI Figures from SpaceX IPO-related disclosures covering xAI: ~$3.2B revenue and $12.7B CapEx in 2025; ~$6.4B operating loss also reported in secondary coverage. | 2025 | $3.2B | $12.7B | High | Sources: PitchBook |
| Dec 31, 2025 | Microsoft Company-wide CY2025 CapEx ~$118B (Platformonomics hyperscaler retrospective from earnings). Dominated by AI/cloud infrastructure; not a pure 'OpenAI spend' line. Revenue left null (whole-company). | 2025 | — | $118B | Medium | Sources: PlatformonomicsCNBC |
| Dec 31, 2025 | Google / Alphabet Alphabet CY2025 CapEx ~$91.5B. Includes Google Cloud + DeepMind-related infra; not a DeepMind P&L. | 2025 | — | $91.5B | Medium | Sources: PlatformonomicsCNBC |
| Dec 31, 2025 | Amazon Amazon CY2025 CapEx ~$134.7B; AWS CapEx breakout cited ~$96.5B in same retrospective. Includes retail logistics, not only AI. | 2025 | — | $134.7B | Medium | Sources: PlatformonomicsCNBC |
| Dec 31, 2025 | Meta AI Meta CY2025 CapEx ~$72.2B. Company-wide; AI infra is the explicit growth driver in guidance commentary. | 2025 | — | $72.2B | Medium | Sources: PlatformonomicsCNBC |