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Days to open-weight parity

Open-weight models now match each frontier capability jump in months, not years — and the gap keeps shrinking.

Last updated · Illustrative data

Days to open-weight parity

Days from frontier release to roughly matching open-weight model

Illustrative data

Lollipop chart of days until an open-weight model matched each frontier capability.

0d50d100d150dGPT-5-classGPT-5-class → GLM-4.5: 29 days29Gemini 2.0Gemini 2.0 → DeepSeek V3: 38 days38Claude 4 SonnetClaude 4 Sonnet → Kimi K2: 41 days41GPT-4 TurboGPT-4 Turbo → Mixtral 8x7B: 45 days45Claude 3.5 SonnetClaude 3.5 Sonnet → Qwen2.5 72B: 52 days52GPT-4oGPT-4o → Llama 3.1 405B: 78 days78Claude 3 OpusClaude 3 Opus → Llama 3 70B: 95 days95o1-previewo1-preview → DeepSeek-R1: 112 days112GPT-4GPT-4 → Llama 2 70B: 140 days140

Sources: Artificial Analysis · LMSYS / Arena

Methodology & sources

Illustrative days from a named frontier release to an open-weight model that roughly matched it on public leaderboards. Matching is judgmental.

Text summary: Lollipop chart of days from a frontier release to an open-weight model matching that capability. Download CSV as a data fallback.

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Data API: /api/charts/days-to-commoditization · /api/charts/days-to-commoditization.json · /api/charts/days-to-commoditization.csv